000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102110
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM GILMA NEAR 19.2N 119.6W AT 10/2100 UTC MOVING NNW AT 
4 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT ENTRAINS DRIER AIR AND MOVE 
OVER COOLER WATER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. GILMA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY SAT NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST 
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FRESH TO STRONG 
WSW WINDS SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION FEEDING INTO THE DISTURBANCE ARE 
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 17.5N103W BY THIS 
EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE IS WITHIN 240 NM
OF THE MEXICAN COAST FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR ACAPULCO. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST FROM 09N78W 
TO 14N88W TO 17N99W...THEN ACROSS THE OCEAN TO 10N105W TO 12N128W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE TROUGH W OF 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS WSW FROM SUBTROPICAL HIGH NW OF THE AREA TO 
AROUND 26N122W NORTH OF T.S. GILMA. A LOW PRES TROUGH EXTENDS SSE 
FROM A HEAT LOW NEAR 34N115W TO THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO NEAR 17N102W. W-SW WINDS 
PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE REGION S OF 15N AND E OF 125W. ENHANCED WSW 
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS TO AROUND 8 
FT FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 107W BY SAT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE... 
SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATES 15 TO 20 KT 
WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W WITH N SWELL TO 8 FT PREVAILS. 

$$
MUNDELL