000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM GILMA CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 119.3W AT 10/1500 UTC 
MOVING NNW AT 4 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS TO 
65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH OVER 
THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. GILMA IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY SATURDAY EVENING AS IT 
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS.

THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM 
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN A 
DAY OR SO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE 
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A HIGH 
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST 
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING ERNESTO IS NOTED 
WITHIN 240 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
TO NEAR ACAPULCO. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PANAMA AT 08N77W TO NW COSTA RICA AT 
10N86W. ELSEWHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SW OF T.S. GILMA FROM 
15N122W TO 09N130W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N130W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS 
BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN AREA S OF MEXICO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W HAS 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS ARE 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. EXPECT 
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTEROMETER 
DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 15 TO 20 
KT WINDS ACROSS THE NW AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 122W AND 132W WHERE 
NORTH SWELL AROUND 8 FT PREVAIL. 

$$
FORMOSA