000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N105W TO 16N103W TO 1011 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 08N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. DEVELOPMENT 
...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT 
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N124W TO 19N129W TO 1013 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 12N126W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N119W TO 16N125W. FRESH WINDS 
GENERATED NEAR THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE WILL RESULT IN 8-9 FT SEAS 
FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 125W AND 133W ON MONDAY FROM 13N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 125W AND 133W...EXPANDING TO THE WATERS FROM 12N TO 17N 
W OF 130W ON TUE. THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO 
AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 10N85W TO 09N93W TO 
12N100W AND FROM 11N107W TO 11N122W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N126W TO BEYOND 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 06N77W TO 08N99W...FROM 07N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 112W AND 121W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 
09N121W TO 07N132W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 08N84W TO 
15N95W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
39N148W WITH A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 10N112W. 
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE 
WATERS N OF 20N...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH S OF 20N W OF 120W 
WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTER BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE 
WESTERN LOW/TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. A NEW WEAK HIGH PRES 
CELL WILL DEVELOP NEAR 31N132W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN HAS REACHED AS FAR N AS 
THE SE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE U.S. CALIFORNIA COAST. THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL EVENT HAS VERY LONG PERIODS OF 20-23 
SECONDS. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTLINES OF 
CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD TODAY PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP 
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES. HIGHEST ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS ARE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS TO 8-9 FT. THE 
SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY MON AND TUE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT ON MON.

GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 
20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TONIGHT INTO 
EARLY MON MORNING...AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE. 
THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE INDUCED BY HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL 
GUATEMALA AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH 
WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING NORTHWARD.

$$
LEWITSKY