000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030934
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL 
AMERICA EXTENDS INTO THE EPAC ALONG 86W N OF 10N AND IS MOVING W 
AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 11N 
BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE 
WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES W INTO THE PACIFIC. WINDS ARE 
CURRENTLY A MODERATE BREEZE OR LESS NEAR THE WAVE THAT IS 
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 102W FROM 10N TO 17N. THE WAVE IS 
MOVING W AROUND 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE 
FOUND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF WAVE AXIS MAINLY N OF 15N TO THE 
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 103W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT 
IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IR SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOW PRES WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS WEAK LOW PRES MOVING 
IN TANDEM WITH THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. WINDS OF 
10-15 KT ARE NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM 17N118W TO 11N120W AND IS MOVING 
W AROUND 10-15 KT. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED NEAR THE NORTHERN 
END OF THE WAVE AXIS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. ONLY ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
WAVE AXIS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY A MODERATE BREEZE NEAR THE WAVE. 
THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE ON THE 
TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 11N90W TO 10N101W. ITCZ AXIS 
FROM 09N106W TO 12N118W THEN CONTINUES FROM 11N122W TO 08N130W 
TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 102W AND 111W...FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 121W AND 
128W AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE 1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 41N142W IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE MOVING NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE 
RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE BELT OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY FOUND N OF THE ITCZ TO 15N AND W OF 134W 
WILL SHRINK WESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MIGRATES AND 
DIMINISH OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT NIGHT. THE 0656 UTC 
SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS. 

THE 0518 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT NEAR THE 
COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD S SWELL OF 21-23 SECONDS ARE NOW 
IMPACTING THE S WATERS...PARTICULARLY S OF 04N BETWEEN 95W AND 
128W. THIS SWELL EVENT IS PASSING THE GALAPAGOS OVERNIGHT 
TONIGHT AND WILL REACH THE COASTLINE FROM PANAMA THROUGH 
SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE 
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA ON SAT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE AWARE OF 
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF AND POSSIBLY SOME COMPLICATIONS 
ENTERING HARBORS AND INLETS. SWELL HEIGHTS TO 10 FT CAN BE 
EXPECTED AS FAR N AS 07N THROUGH SAT NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS OF 20 KT...WITH PULSES TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY SUN. 

$$
GR