000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU AUG 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 11N TO 16N ALONG 100W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 
KT. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS NOTED CLOSE TO WHERE THE WAVE IS 
INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH...FROM  08N TO 10N BETWEEN 
99W AND 101W. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENT 
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED NEAR 16N110W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND HIGH DENSITY WINDS 
INDICATE ONLY MINIMAL CYCLONIC TURNING AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE 
LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. 

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 12N TO 17N ALONG 115W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 
KT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING NEAR THE WAVE AS IT MOVES 
INTO AN AREA OF FAIRLY DRY AIR. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0536 UTC SHOWED 
SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING AT THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
WAVE...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WERE GENERALLY BELOW 20 KT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROF FROM 09N84W TO 08N94W 10N100W. ITCZ FROM 10N115W TO 
09N125W TO 10N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 99W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 
125W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING 
EASTWARD THROUGH 125W N OF 23N. A TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDS 
THROUGH 15N140W...ALTHOUGH THIS IS BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE 
UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. DIVERGENT SW FLOW ALOFT 
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 15N125W IS 
VENTING LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. MEANWHILE A 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 1031 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 39N140W TO 
ROUGHLY 21N1120W IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 125W. THESE TRADES WILL DIMINISH IN 
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES 
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NE AS AN UPPER CYCLONE APPROACHES THE AREA 
FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FURTHER EAST...A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING FROM THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH 
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND IS RELATED TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN 
TROPICAL WAVE MIGRATING THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE MONSOON 
TROUGH OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SPORADIC CONVECTION IS LIKELY 
TO PERSIST E OF 90W THROUGH THE WEEK. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE AS FAR N AS 
03N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. THIS IS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL...AND 
MWW3 OUTPUT SHOWS PERIODS OF UP TO 23 SECONDS. IT WILL PASS THE 
GALAPAGOS LATER TODAY...AND REACH THE COASTLINE FROM PANAMA 
THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH FRI. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST 
SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF AND POSSIBLY SOME 
COMPLICATIONS ENTERING HARBORS AND INLETS. SWELL HEIGHTS TO 9 FT 
CAN BE EXPECTED AS N AS 09N THROUGH 48 HOURS...DECAYING BELOW 9 
FT THROUGH SUN. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN