000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020928
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU AUG 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 16N-9N ALONG 99W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WAVE. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE 
MOVING W DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 17N115W TO 10N116W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 
CLUSTER MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 
115W-117W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LESSEN IN 
AMPLITUDE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ FROM 11N106W TO 14N1142W 9N125W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N E OF 80W AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 
118W-125W AND WITHIN 200 NM N OF AXIS FROM 133W-140W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AND ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED NEAR 17N121W WITH RIDGE TO 26N117W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS A 
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 26N111W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE S NEAR 16N11W 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N133W 
SE TO NEAR 20N117W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING AN AREA ELY 
TRADES 20 KT FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 130W. GRADUALLY DECREASE IN 
COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT 
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL 8-10 FT S SWELL IS LOCATED S OF 05N BETWEEN 95W 
135W. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED DURING 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

$$
DGS