000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010248
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 08N94W TO FAR SE MEXICO NEAR 15N93W 
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MAINLY TO THE SE 
OF THE WAVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE 
SECTION BELOW. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT IN THE WAKE OF 
THE WAVE TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING 
W DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 09N109W TO 16N108W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 
105W AND 110W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS DID CLIP THE WAVE NEAR THE 
AXIS...CONTINUING EASTWARD...HELPING TO IDENTIFY THE POSITION. 
THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LESSEN IN AMPLITUDE DURING 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 07N77W TO 09N83W TO 07N91W TO 
10N99W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
10N99W TO 12N108W THEN RESUMES FROM 11N110W TO 09N125W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 89W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...AND ALSO
FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL 1028 MB HIGH PRES IS NW OF THE 
AREA NEAR 37N138W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH 
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 32N130W WITH A SE TERMINUS 
NEAR 22N112W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH NE-E 
TRADES FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 130W...AND ALSO FROM 11N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W...ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT W OF 135W. WINDS 
WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS 
THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL 8 FT S-SW SWELL IS LOCATED S OF 04N BETWEEN 
115W AND 130W...AND ALSO S OF 04N BETWEEN 107W AND 115W WHERE A 
RECENT ASCAT PASS ALSO CAPTURED 20 KT SE WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
THESE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS 
WHILE THE SWELL GRADUALLY DECAYS TO LESS THAN 8 FT N OF 03N BY 
48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY