000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 09N TO EASTERN GUATEMALA ALONG 90W 
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. FRESH WINDS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 
92W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATER TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES 
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING W DURING THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 08N110W TO 16N108W MOVING W AROUND 10-15 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 
103W AND 108W WITH ALL OF THE CONVECTION TO THE E IN THE WAKE OF 
THE WAVE. A RECENT ASCAT PASS DID CLIP THE WAVE NEAR THE AXIS 
CONTINUING EASTWARD. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LESSEN 
IN AMPLITUDE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 
09N89W...THEN RESUMES FROM 10N100W TO 10N107W...THEN RESUMES 
FROM 11N112W TO 08N122W TO 09N140W. NO MONSOON TROUGH IS NOTED. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W AND 
91W...AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N122W TO 
12N128W...FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 131W AND 133W...AND FROM 09N 
TO 11N W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL 1028 MB HIGH PRES IS NW OF THE 
AREA NEAR 37N138W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH 
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 32N130W WITH A SE TERMINUS 
NEAR 22N112W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH NE-E 
TRADES FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 130W...AND ALSO FROM 11N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W...ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT W OF 135W. WINDS 
WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS 
THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL 8 FT S-SW SWELL IS LOCATED S OF 04N BETWEEN 
115W AND 130W...AND ALSO S OF 04N BETWEEN 107W AND 115W WHERE A 
RECENT ASCAT PASS ALSO CAPTURED 20 KT SE WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
THESE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS 
WHILE THE SWELL GRADUALLY DECAYS TO LESS THAN 8 FT N OF 03N BY 
48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY