000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 11N86W TO 7N95W. ITCZ FROM 7N95W TO 09N120W 
7N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-8N E OF 81W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
107W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDS FROM 32N127W TO 20N137W. DOWNSTREAM MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 30N125W TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
25N125W TROUGH CONTINUES TO 17N130. EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED CIRRUS 
CLOUDS N OF 25N BETWEEN 128W-138W STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS A LARGE PORTION 
OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUES OFFSHORE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 14N123W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO WITH TROUGH SW TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 17N100W.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IN 
THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM 4N-8N E OF 81W.

SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 20N-16W ALONG 112W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS. 

SURFACE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA AND LOWER PRES NEAR THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT ELY WINDS
FROM 12N-20N W OF 130W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

ELY WINDS TO 25 KT CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WINDS 
HAVE INCREASED TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS 
SHOULD DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT BY LATE TUE.

$$
DGS