000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 8N78W TO 9N90W 8N100W. ITCZ FROM 8N100W TO 
11N114W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
3N-7N E OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 80 NM N OF AXIS FROM 115W-118W.

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDS FROM 32N126W TO 23N125W. DOWNSTREAM A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N123W TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
26N124W TO 19N124. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA N 
OF 15N W OF 115W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
CONTINUES OFFSHORE TO 17N115W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 84W-93W

SURFACE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA AND LOWER PRES NEAR THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT ELY WINDS
FROM 12N-20N W OF 130W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH SUN.

ELY WINDS TO 25 KT CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
BUT ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THEN 20 KT MON MORNING.

PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WINDS 
HAVE INCREASED TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS 
SHOULD DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT BY MON.

$$
DGS