000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280247
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N134W TO 09N136W WITH A 1008 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N135W. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 131W WINDS ARE NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT 
WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. THE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED ON THE LATEST 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT LACKS ANY DEEP ORGANIZED 
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N115W TO 18N116W AND IS MOVING 
SLOWLY W. ONLY MINIMAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
WAVE WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 10N98W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N98W TO 09N110W TO 12N117W 
TO 07N125W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N135W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 
06N TO 09N E OF 90W AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 104W AND 
110W.  

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES OVER THE NW PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 21N W OF 130W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 135W. THE 
RIDGE IS MOVING E ABOUT 10 KT. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A MIDDLE/UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED N OF 18N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W WITH THE 
AXIS ALONG 125W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING NEAR 
25N123W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
CONTINUES OFFSHORE TO ABOUT 118W.

A WEAK TROPICAL JET IS LOCATED THROUGH 18N140W TO 20N133W TO 
18N125W WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS UP TO 50 
KT. ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 08N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W WINDS 
ALOFT ARE EASTERLY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 06N E OF 100W 
INTO SOUTH AMERICA. 

$$
CAB