000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261532
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N113W TO 21N112W MOVING W-NW AT 15 
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DRIFT W-NW AS IT ROUNDS A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. IT IS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE 
AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES IN THE VICINITY OF A LINE FROM 
30N118W TO 18N125W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 21N 
BETWEEN 111W AND 115W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N130W TO 15N128W MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N130W 
AND CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT DISORGANIZED BANDS OF CONVECTION THE TO 
WEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG 10N. AN 
EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 26/0622 UTC SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 12N WITH SEAS TO 9 
FT. SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED WITH THIS TROPICAL 
WAVE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 10N88W TO 09N93W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N93W TO 
07N109W TO 07N121W TO 10N125W THEN RESUMES NEAR 09N135W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 99W AND 102W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 15N129W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS 
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO BEYOND 32N140W. TO THE EAST OF THIS RIDGE 
AXIS...A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS AN 
AXIS ALONG 125W THAT DIPS SOUTHWARD TO A BASE NEAR 22N...HOWEVER 
DRY AIR DOMINATES OVER THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS 
N OF 15N W OF 115W. OVERALL STABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS 
THIS REGION AND IS FURTHER ENHANCED DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH 
AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 38N149W. WINDS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ARE IN THE 5 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 
BELOW 8 FT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 15N E OF 120W IS UNDER 
THE INFLUENCE OF PRIMARILY EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT. ASIDE FROM A 
FEW SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE CELLS ALONG THE ITCZ...IT 
CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TRANQUIL SPEAKING IN TERMS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LONG- 
PERIOD SW SWELL...IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 17 SECONDS...IS 
PROPAGATING NORTHEASTWARD E OF 120W. THIS LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL 
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA 
COASTS BY THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE TO E 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AS THE NEXT PULSE OF 
STRONGER EASTERLY TRADES DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA FRIDAY...GAP WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND 
NORTHERN COSTA RICA WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WINDS FROM 10N TO 
12N E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO..WITH SEAS 
REACHING 8 TO 10 FT.

$$
HUFFMAN