000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251529
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N125W. THIS LOW CENTER
IS AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM 
17N122W TO 14N124W TO THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE 
EASTERN QUADRANTS...AND WITHIN 360 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES 
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. THE LATEST 0728 UTC 
HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS CONTINUED TO INDICATE 20 TO 30 KT 
WINDS WITHIN 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AWAY FROM THE LOW 
CENTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N108W 13N110W 08N110W. THE WAVE IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN
107W AND 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 06N96W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N96W TO 08N106W...AND FROM 10N128W 
BEYOND 09N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 129W AND 135W...SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 06N80W
AND 08N108W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N136W 28N132W TO 25N118W TO
23N113W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND
THE LOWER PRESSURE THAT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 09N TO 17N W OF 128W AS 
DEPICTED BY THE LATEST OVERNIGHT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS.
THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

A SURFACE TROUGH IS 11N136W 6N140W. EARLIER CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS 
DISSIPATED.

FRESH 20 KT GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS CONTINUE. THIS WEATHER 
PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WINDS WILL PEAK 
NEAR 25 KT WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW. 

$$
MT