000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 11N124W. THIS LOW 
IS SITUATED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING 
FROM 17N121W TO THE LOW. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS TO THE SE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR ADDITIONAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM 
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. 
THE LATEST 0500 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE 20 TO 30 KT WINDS WITHIN 210 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
LOW. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N107W TO 08N109W AND WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST 
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N92W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS IS FROM 10N127W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS W 
OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NW OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 
41N147W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 22N115W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 09N TO 17N W OF 
128W AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST OVERNIGHT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER 
PASS. THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES WILL MAINTAIN OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. 

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 11N136W TO 05N139W. THIS 
TROUGH IS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 134W AND 138W.

FRESH 20 KT GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS CONTINUE. THIS WEATHER 
PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL 
PEAK NEAR 25 KT WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW. 

$$
AL