000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232241 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 23 2012

CORRECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH 
NEAR 10N113W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N112W 13N113W TO THE 
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 112W AND 115W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N97W 13N98W 11N99W.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF MOISTURE AS IN THE MIMIC/TPW 
ANIMATION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION 
IS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W. EASTERLY WINDS RANGING
FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE AND WILL REMAIN WITHIN 300 NM OR SO
TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST 
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 07N78W TO 10N93W TO 08N104W
TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N112W...AND
TO 09N124W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N129W BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION 
IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 89W...AND FROM 09N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 132W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 97W
AND 108W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N138W TO 25N129W TO 20N118W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE 
COMPARATIVELY LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE THAT IS ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH/THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH 20 KNOT TRADE WINDS FROM
7N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 120W AS DEPICTED BY THE MOST RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 20 KNOT WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE AREAS FROM 07N 
TO 17N TO THE WEST OF 120W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST 
OF 135W AT THE START. WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD FROM 07N TO 17N TO THE WEST OF 126W.
THREE SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
REPORTED 15 TO 25 WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. THIS SYSTEM ALREADY IS
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.

EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 86W AND
92W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
8 TO 10 FEET IN THAT AREA ONLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE 24 HOUR TO 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD.

$$
MT