000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190912
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N77W 10N87W 7N95W 12N109W TO A 
1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 6N124W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM W 
OF 1009 MB LOW NEAR 6N124W 4N133W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 78W AND 
84W...FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 91W AND 98W...N OF 14N TO OVER 
MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 99W...AND FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 113W AND 
121W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW PRES 
CENTER. 

...DISCUSSION...
A 1036 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE FORECAST 
AREA NEAR 42N156W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 27N128W.  
THE REMNANT LOW OF FABIO IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS 
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 27N120W AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND 
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 
90 NM OF CENTER IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS RANGING UP 
TO 8 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW 20 KT AND 
THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THIS MORNING. THE 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND 
DOMINATE THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS WITH NE TO E WINDS 
PREVAILING N OF 10N W OF 115W.

DEEPER INTO THE TROPICS...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO 
BE AMPLIFIED NORTHWARD NEAR 12N108W WHILE TWO BROAD CYCLONIC 
GYRES ARE CENTERED NEAR 07N95W AND 07N123W. THE WESTERN-MOST 
GYRE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS BEFORE OPENING UP. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AND SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH WILL INCREASE 
AND GENERATE 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS AND BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT.

ELSEWHERE...CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS WILL BUILD OVER THE 
S/CENTRAL PORTION TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND.  

GAP WINDS...THE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN 
SEA WILL PULSE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BUILD 
SEAS TO 8 FT FRIDAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL FORCE STRONG BREEZE THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. 

$$
PAW