000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 10N87W TO 07N95W TO 
12N109W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 07N122W TO 05N125W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N125W TO 
04N133W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 89W AND 95W...AND WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N115W TO 09N121W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 108W AND 110W... 
AND FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 121W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1036 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE FORECAST 
AREA NEAR 43N154W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 10N123W. THE 
REMNANT LOW OF FABIO IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS 
CENTERED NEAR 27N121W AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND BE 
ABSORBED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE BY EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN 20 
TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH  
SEAS RANGING UP TO 9 FT. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 
8 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL 
DOMINATE THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS WITH NE TO E WINDS 
PREVAILING N OF 10N W OF 115W.

DEEPER INTO THE TROPICS...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO 
BE AMPLIFIED NORTHWARD IN TWO LOCATIONS...ONE NEAR 10N87W AND 
THE OTHER NEAR 12N109W WHILE TWO BROAD CYCLONIC GYRES ARE 
CENTERED NEAR 07N95W AND 07N122W. THE WESTERN-MOST GYRE IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 
HOURS AND BY FRIDAY DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 
10N130W TO 08N132W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH WILL INCREASE AND GENERATE 20 TO 25 
KT NE WINDS AND BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT.

ELSEWHERE...BY THURSDAY SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL 
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT GENERALLY S OF 04N BETWEEN 108W AND 122W.

GAP WINDS...NE TO E WINDS HAVE BEEN PULSING TO AS HIGH AS A 
STRONG BREEZE DURING THE MORNING HOURS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF 
TEHAUNTEPEC THE LAST FEW DAYS. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE 
CONSISTENTLY FRESH TO STRONG BY 0600 UTC FRIDAY AFTER A TROPICAL 
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. THESE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY 
SATURDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN