000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 07N78W TO 10N86W TO 07N95W TO 
13N108W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 07N121W TO 08N126W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N126W TO 
10N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W... 
AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE FORECAST 
AREA NEAR 43N153W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 10N130W. THE 
REMNANT LOW OF FABIO IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS 
CENTERED NEAR 26N121W AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND BE 
ABSORBED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE BY EARLY THURSDAY. A RECENT 
18/1816 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED 
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE 
AND WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SEAS ARE RANGING 
FROM 8 TO 10 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVERNIGHT 
TONIGHT. THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE 
NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS WITH NE TO E WINDS PREVAILING N OF 10N 
W OF 115W.

DEEPER INTO THE TROPICS...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO 
BE AMPLIFIED NORTHWARD IN TWO LOCATIONS...ONE NEAR 10N87W AND 
THE OTHER NEAR 13N108W WHILE TWO BROAD CYCLONIC GYRES ARE 
CENTERED NEAR 07N92W AND 07N121W. THE WESTERN-MOST GYRE IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 
HOURS AND BY FRIDAY DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 
11N127W TO 08N130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH WILL INCREASE AND GENERATE 20 TO 25 
KT NE WINDS AND BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT.

ELSEWHERE...BY THURSDAY SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL 
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT GENERALLY S OF 04N BETWEEN 108W AND 120W.

GAP WINDS...NE TO E WINDS HAVE BEEN PULSING TO AS HIGH AS A 
STRONG BREEZE DURING THE MORNING HOURS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF 
TEHAUNTEPEC THE LAST FEW DAYS. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE 
CONSISTENTLY FRESH TO STRONG BY 0600 UTC FRIDAY AFTER A TROPICAL 
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. THESE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY 
SATURDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN