000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE FABIO WAS NEAR 18.3N 119.5W AT 0900 UTC AND MOVING 
W-NW AT 8 KT WITH MAXIMUM WIND 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 75 NM OF 
CENTER EXCEPT 180 NM SE QUADRANT. FABIO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS...A DRIER 
AIR MASS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. FABIO IS FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND TO A REMNANT LOW 
BY EARLY WED. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADER MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 09N99W TO 
09N98W TO 06N112W TO 09N117W THEN IT BECOMES AN ITCZ AXIS TO 
10N128W AND TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 95W AND 99W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 
NM N AND 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE 1037 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH RESIDES WELL N OF THE FORECAST AREA 
NEAR 44N145W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIGH CENTER 
THROUGH 34N145W THEN N OF FABIO TO 24N115W. FRESH TO STRONG N 
WINDS LIE N OF THE RIDGE OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 
COAST...WITH A FRESH BREEZE AS FAR S AS NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 
129W AND 135W. SHIP WDC3786 REPORTED 20 KT N-NE WINDS AND 8 FT 
SEAS NEAR 30N133W AT 0300 UTC AND SHIP WFLG REPORTED 19 KT AND 9 
FT SEAS NEAR 31N130W AT 0600 UTC. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF 
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN 
AMPLIFIED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA. FABIO IS BEING 
STEERED NORTHWARD BY THIS DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. THE SURFACE RIDGE 
N OF FABIO IS BEGINNING TO ERODE. THE INCREASING TROUGHING OVER 
NE WATERS WILL SHIFT THE TIGHTEST PRES GRADIENT AND THE FRESH NE 
WINDS INTO FAR NW WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONE LIES OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 29N109W AND 
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N OF FABIO TO 22N123W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE 
CENTRAL SIERRA MADRA OCCIDENTAL AS WELL AS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM 20N TO 25N. THIS 
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHRINK EASTWARD AS FABIO LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO 
THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA. 

ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE ALOFT LIES NEAR 10N96W. THIS BROAD 
ANTICYCLONE EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD TO 10N110W. THE DIFFLUENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

THE REMNANTS OF EMILIA HAVE PASSED W OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 
0320 UTC WINDSAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS CAN STILL 
BE FOUND OVER FAR W WATERS FROM 15N TO 18N. A SLUG OF 2.00 INCH 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE EMILIA REMNANTS IS 
MAKING ITS WAY W OF 140W THIS MORNING. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE EMILIA REMNANTS 
CONTINUE TO MOVE W AT A GOOD CLIP...AROUND 15 KT. WINDS AND SEAS 
WILL DIMINISH BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20 KT AND 8 
FT...RESPECTIVELY...OVER FORECAST WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. 

$$
SCHAUER