000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE FABIO NEAR 16.9N 117.4W MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT WITH 
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KT GUSTS TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S AND 90 NM N SEMICIRCLES. FABIO IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN 
AS IT MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS AND A DRIER AIR MASS IN ADDITION 
TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. FABIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A 
TROPICAL STORM BY MON EVENING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA NEAR 15.6N 138.2W MOVING W AT 16 KT 
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER. EMILIA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT 
MOVES WESTWARD AS A REMNANT LOW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 10N87W TO 08N95W TO 
08N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N117W TO 05N133W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 180 
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 43N145W WILL DRIFT 
SLOWLY W OF 150W THROUGH WED. WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ESE TO 30N133W 
THEN E TO AROUND 27N118W. SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE PAST 6-9 
HOURS SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA
EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES EMILIA AND FABIO. A 
WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS 
EVIDENT NEAR 08N99W WITH 15-20 KT WINDS DISPLACED N AND SE OF A 
BROAD LOW PRES CENTER. WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT S OF THE WEAKENING 
CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA WHILE THE WIND FIELD AROUND 
HURRICANE FABIO REMAINS NEARLY CIRCULAR.

EXPECT EMILIA TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST AND STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH 
MON WITH AREA OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA 
BY MON MORNING. FABIO HAS ANOTHER 2-3 DAYS OR LEFT AS A VIABLE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE S OF 22N BEFORE ENCOUNTERING SHARP SST GRADIENT 
WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A 
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MON EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CALIF
TO NEAR 28N125W...THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRES
AREA WILL DRIFT S ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUE THROUGH WED. THE
NET EFFECT WILL BE A VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS NE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF WEAKENING FABIO
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGLIGIBLE BY THU AFTERNOON.

THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF WEAK LL 
CIRCULATIONS MOVING W AS WAVE-LIKE FEATURES THROUGH FRI WITH 
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. WINDS INTO 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO AROUND 
20 KT THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT MAX SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6-7 FT.

$$
MUNDELL