000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA AT 15.7N 133.7W AT 0300 UTC MOVING W AT 14 
KT WITH MAXIMUM WIND 35 GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CONFINED WITHIN 90 NM E AND 30 NM W QUADRANTS. 
EMILIA HAS BECOME HIGHLY DISORGANIZED SINCE ENTERING COOLER 
WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY 
SUN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW PRES BY LATE SUN. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

HURRICANE FABIO AT 16.4N 115.7W AT 0300 UTC MOVING W AT 8 KT 
WITH MAXIMUM WIND 90 GUSTS TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WHILE SCATTERED 
MODERATE CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE. 
FABIO WENT THROUGH A SUDDEN BURST OF INTENSITY EARLY TONIGHT 
INCREASING ITS MAXIMUM WIND TO 90 KT...AND HAS HOLD STEADY SINCE 
THEN...BUT CORE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN COOLING AGAIN INDICATING 
THE BURST MAY BE OVER AS IT MOVES W-NW. FABIO EXPECTED TO START 
WEAKENING EARLY SUN THROUGH MON...WHEN A COMBINATION OF COOLER 
WATERS AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WEAKENS FABIO...WITH 
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM BY MON NIGHT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N90W TO 08N99W TO 
09N107W THE RESUMES FROM 12N119W TO 06N130W. ITCZ AXIS THEN 
EXTENDS TO 05N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
S OF AXIS FROM 92W TO 96W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N118W TO SMALL CYCLONE AT 
23N134W TO BEYOND 19N140W MAINTAIN DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS ACROSS 
MOST OF BASIN W OF 124W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THAT MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH EMILIA. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 
25N115W KEEPS FLOW OF MOIST AIR MASS ADVECTED INTO E PAC E OF 
120W ALONG MONSOON TROUGH. 

HIGH PRES CENTER 1035 MB WELL NW OF AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 
25N115W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROPICAL STORM EMILIA 
FORCE FRESH NE BREEZE N OF 20N W OF 127W. COVERAGE DIMINISHES 
OVER NEXT TO 48 HOURS AS EMILIA MOVES W AND RELAXES GRADIENT.

$$
WALLY BARNES