000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142144
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA AT 15.5N 131.3W AT 2100 UTC MOVING W AT  
13 KT WITH MAXIMUM WIND 45 GUSTS TO 55 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CONFINED WITHIN 60 NM SW AND 30 NM NE SEMICIRCLES. 
EMILIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SUN AS IT MOVES 
W INTO COOLER WATERS.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

HURRICANE FABIO AT 16.2N 114.2W AT 2100 UTC MOVING W-NW AT 9 KT 
WITH MAXIMUM WIND 80 GUSTS TO 100 KT.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WHILE SCATTERED 
MODERATE CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE. 
FABIO MOVES W-NW WHILE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THIS 
EVENING...THEN COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND STABLE UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WEAKENS FABIO...WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME 
TROPICAL STORM BY MON MORNING.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 1088W TO 07N99W TO 
09N105W.  ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N131W TO BEYOND 03N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 90W TO 93W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N120W TO SMALL CYCLONE AT 
23N132W TO BEYOND 18N140W MAINTAIN DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS ACROSS 
MOST OF BASIN W OF 123W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THAT MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH EMILIA.  DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 
25N115W KEEPS FLOW OF MOIST AIR MASS ADVECTED INTO E PAC E OF 
120W ALONG MONSOON TROUGH.    

HIGH PRES CENTER 1034 MB WELL NW OF AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 
19N122W.  PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND TROPICAL STORM EMILIA 
FORCE FRESH NE BREEZE N OF 20N W OF 127W.  COVERAGE DIMINISHES 
OVER NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS EMILIA MOVES W AND RELAXES GRADIENT.

$$
WALLY BARNES