000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141506
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA NEAR 15.5N 131.3W AT 14/1500Z MOVING W AT 
13 KT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KT GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED WITHIN 60 NM SW AND 30 NM NE 
SEMICIRCLES. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION SUN AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD INTO COOLER WATERS. SEE 
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

HURRICANE FABIO NEAR 16.2N 114.2W AT 14/1500Z MOVING W-NW AT 
9 KT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 80 GUSTS TO 100 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WHILE SCATTERED 
MODERATE CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE. 
FABIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING WNW WHILE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY 
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN...A COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND 
A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP FOR STEADY WEAKENING OF 
FABIO...WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A TROPICAL STORM 
BY MON MORNING. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07.581W TO 10N89W 
TO 08N103W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N130W TO BEYOND 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
N OF 02N E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 129 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 
93W. 

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE 1034 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 43N143W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N117W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROPICAL STORM EMILIA IS MAINTAINING 
FRESH 20 KT TRADEWINDS N OF 20N W OF 130W. THIS AREA OF FRESH 20 
KT TRADES WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS 
EMILIA...AND THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS WESTWARD.

LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS 
AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE APPEAR TO BE MORE 
NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED 
EACH MORNING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
AL