000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140911 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUL 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM EMILIA NEAR 15.5N 130.0W AT 14/09Z MOVING W AT 13 KT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KT GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SUN AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD INTO COOLER WATERS. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HURRICANE FABIO NEAR 16.0N 113.4W AT 14/09Z MOVING W-NW AT 9 KT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 80 GUSTS TO 100 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. A COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING OF FABIO...WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY MON MORNING. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N92W TO 08N103W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N123W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS AND N OF THE AXIS TO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SOUTHWESTWARD THOUGH 30N125W TO 22N140W AND THEN TO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 05N148W. THE DEEP LAYERED REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH RESIDES NEAR 43N142W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG 144W AND SE TO NEAR 23N120W. THE 0534 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS A FRESH BREEZE BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND T.S. EMILIA OVER NW WATERS. THE TROUGHING ALOFT OVER NW WATERS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT TROUGHING TO THE NE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL AMPLIFY. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT W AND TROUGHING WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND NW MEXICO. THIS WILL INCREASE THE E TO W PRES GRADIENT OVER N WATERS. A FRESH N TO NE BREEZE IS EXPECTED N OF 27N AND W OF 129W BY EARLY MON MORNING AS A RESULT. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY AIR MASS HAS WRAPPED AROUND EMILIA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ITS EASTERN SIDE. LOW LEVEL MOSITURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL FARTHER S ALONG THE ITCZ AS WELL AS NEAR FABIO AND INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT RESIDES NEAR 32N109W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N132W. A SECOND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 93W AND 96W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION BY LIFTING THE MOISTURE RICH AIR IN PLACE ALONG SW MEXICO. A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ IS FORECAST TO MOVE W WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH MON MORNING. THE 0348 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED WINDS TO 25 KT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MODERATE NE TO E WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE DURING THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON MON. $$ SCHAUER