000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140310
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA AT 15.7N 128.6W AT 0300 UTC MOVING W-NW AT 
13 KT WITH MAXIMUM WIND 45 GUSTS TO 55 KT. ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AND NOW ONLY SCATTERED 
MODERATE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM IN NW SEMICIRCLE. ALL MODELS AGREE 
ON QUICK DEMISE FOR EMILIA BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATE SAT 
AND POST TROPICAL LOW PRES BY MON. SEE THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

HURRICANE FABIO AT 15.7N 112.5W AT 0300 UTC MOVING NW AT 9 KT 
WITH MAXIMUM WIND 80 GUSTS TO 95 KT. FABIO HAS BECOME A 
HURRICANE WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 
NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER. FABIO EXPECTED TO STEER INTO COOLER 
SST LATE SUN AND BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. SEE THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 07N78W TO 08N88W TO 07N100W AND RESUMES 
FROM 12N119W TO 06N129W THEN ITCZ AXIS TO BEYOND 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF N 
AND 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 89W TO 97W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 121W TO 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N122W TO 18N140W TO SMALL 
CYCLONE AT 05N147W MAINTAINS DRY AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF E PAC 
S OF 20N W OF 129W AND N OF 20N W OF 115W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE AT 31N111W ADVECTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE S OF 20N E OF 
120W TO FEED HURRICANE FABIO.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB AT 43N142W HAS 
RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 23N117W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND 
EMILIA SUPPORTS FRESH NE BREEZE OVER NW CORNER OF BASIN THROUGH 
FORECAST PERIOD. MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS VERY ACTIVE IN EASTERN 
PART OF BASIN AND CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL 
ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE RIGHT INGREDIENTS.   

$$
WALLY BARNES