000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA AT 15.5N 127.2W AT 2100 UTC MOVING W AT 13 
KT WITH MAXIMUM WIND 45 GUSTS TO 55 KT.  ASSOCIATED CONVECTION 
HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AND NOW ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE IS 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM IN NW SEMICIRCLE.  ALL MODELS AGREE ON A 
QUICK DEMISE FOR EMILIA BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATE SAT 
AND A POST TROPICAL LOW PRES BY SUN. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST 
/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

HURRICANE FABIO AT 15.6N 111.4W AT 2100 UTC MOVING NW AT 9 KT 
WITH MAXIMUM WIND 70 GUSTS TO 85 KT.  FABIO HAS BECOME A 
HURRICANE WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 
NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER.  FABIO EXPECTED TO STEER INTO COOLER 
SST LATE SUN AND BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND.  SEE THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N101W AND RESUMES FROM 12N119W 
TO 06N130W THEN ITCZ AXIS TO BEYOND 04N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF N AND 120 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 87W TO 92W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
S OF AXIS FROM 121W TO 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N123W TO 13N140W TO SMALL 
CYCLONE AT 05N150W MAINTAINS DRY AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF E PAC S 
OF 20N W OF 130 AND N OF 20N W OF 120W.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE AT 30N113W ADVECTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE S OF 20N E OF 
120W TO FEED HURRICANE FABIO.

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1031 MB AT 44N143W HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 
19N117W.  PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND EMILIA SUPPORTS FRESH 
NE BREEZE OVER NW CORNER OF BASIN THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  
MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS VERY ACTIVE IN EASTERN PART OF BASIN AND 
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE 
RIGHT INGREDIENTS.     

$$
WALLY BARNES