000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA NEAR 15.6N 126.0W AT 13/15Z MOVING W AT 12 
KT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KT GUSTS TO 65 KT. DEEP CONVECTION 
CONTINUES TO DECREASE OVER EMILIA WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 75 NM SW QUADRANT. EMILIA IS CURRENTLY 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SAT AFTERNOON AS 
IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. SEE THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM FABIO NEAR 15.0N 110.6W AT 13/15Z MOVING W-NW AT 
9 KT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 60 GUSTS TO 75 KT. FABIO CONTINUES TO 
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES 
WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM N 
AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLES. FABIO IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A 
HURRICANE TONIGHT. BY EARLY SUN...FABIO SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER 
WATERS AND START A WEAKENING TREND. SEE THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 10N101W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N133W TO 04N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W TO 
90W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W TO 98W.

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 1030 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 43N141W WITH 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 27N121W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND EMILIA IS SUPPORTING FRESH 20 KT WINDS W 
OF LINE 30N126W TO 20N140W AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MAINTAINING AN AREA FRESH 20 KT 
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF THE FRESH WINDS 
WILL DECREASE WESTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTWARD MOTION OF 
EMILIA. 

$$
AL