000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA NEAR 15.4N 124.8W AT 13/09Z MOVING W AT 12 
KT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KT GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN 150 NM SW AND W QUADRANTS. 
30-40 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE OF EMILIA IS 
LIMITING THE DEEP CONVECTION THERE. EMILIA IS BECOMING 
SURROUNDED BY A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SAT AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES 
WESTWARD. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM FABIO NEAR 14.2N 109.6W AT 13/09Z MOVING W-NW AT 
8 KT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 55 GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES 
WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM N 
AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLES. FABIO IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A 
HURRICANE EARLY SAT. BY EARLY SUN...FABIO SHOULD ENCOUNTER 
COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SEE THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 
10N95W TO 12N100W AND THEN FROM 13N117W TO 05N134W BEFORE 
TRANSITIONING INTO ITCZ AXIS THAT EXTENDS TO BEYOND 04N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS 
FROM 91W TO 98W WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
180 NM SE OF THE AXIS FROM 117W TO 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 31N122W EXTENDS A TROUGH 
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N140W THEN TO A SECOND CYCLONE AT 05N145W. 
THE DEEP LAYERED REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE 
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS OVER THE 
NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE 
RESIDES NEAR 35N144W AND EXTENDS RIDGES SOUTHWARD ALONG 144W AND 
SE TO NEAR 23N115W. THE 0554 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS A FRESH BREEZE 
RESIDES BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND T.S. EMILIA OVER WATERS 
PRIMARILY W OF A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 20N140W. SEAS TO 9 FT IN 
MIXED NE AND SE SWELL CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN THIS REGION. WINDS 
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY SUN. 

PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP MOSITURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN DRY AIR JUST SOUTH OF EMILIA AND MOISTURE CONVERGED 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. THE 0550 UTC ASCAT PASS 
ALSO SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS HERE JUST S OF THE ITCZ. 
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS EMILIA WEAKENS AND 
CONTINUES WESTWARD.

AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT RESIDES OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 
28N114W AND EXTENDS RIDGE AXES SW TO NEAR 20N130W AND SE TO 
NEAR 20N97W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MEXICO IS ENHANCING CONVECTION BY LIFTING 
THE MOISTURE RICH AIR IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
LIES WITHIN 150 NM OF THE W COAST OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO 23N.

MODERATE NE TO E WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA INTO 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL PULSE TO A FRESH BREEZE DURING THE MORNING 
HOURS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

$$
SCHAUER