000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130308
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE EMILIA AT 15.3N 123.0W MOVE W AT 11 KT WITH MAXIMUM 
WIND 80 GUSTS TO 100 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM E AND 150 NM W SEMICIRCLES. EMILIA WEAKENS AS IT 
MOVES W OVER COOLER WATERS AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 
BECOMES TROPICAL STORM EARLY FRI...THEN DISSIPATES AS POST- 
TROPICAL LOW W OF 140W EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST 
/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM FABIO AT 13.7N 108.6W MOVE W AT 9 KT WITH MAXIMUM 
WIND 50 GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM S AND 60 NM N SEMICIRCLES. FABIO EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE EARLY SAT AS IT TURN TO A MORE 
NW TRACK THROUGH LATE SAT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...DISCONTINUOUS 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N99W AND FROM 12N118W TO 
05N132W THEN ITCZ EXTENDS TO BEYOND 06N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 85W TO 90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM SE OF AXIS FROM 117W TO 121W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 31N123W HAS SHARP TROUGH EXTEND TO 
11N140W THEN TO SECOND CYCLONE AT 06N144W. VERY DRY AIR MASS 
UNDER TROUGH AND UPSTREAM RIDGE. DOWNSTREAM ANTICYCLONE 27N114W 
FLOWS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO AREA WHERE FABIO IS 
GENERATING. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IMPROVES OVER FABIO AS 
SHEARING OUTFLOW FROM EMILIA HAS DIMINISHED. 

SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB N OF AREA AT 36N142W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO 26N123W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND 
HURRICANE EMILIA FORCES SWATH OF FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 
FT N OF 23N W OF 130W.

WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
PULSE TO 20 KT WITH SEAS BARELY REACHING 7-8 FT THROUGH SUN. 

$$
WALLY BARNES