000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE EMILIA AT 15.1N 122.4W MOVING W AT 10 KT WITH MAXIMUM 
WIND 90 WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM E AND 150 NM W SEMICIRCLES. EMILIA 
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES W OVER COOLER WATERS AND INCREASED VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR...BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRI NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES 
AS POST-TROPICAL LOW W OF 140W EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM FABIO AT 14.2N 108.3W MOVING W AT 9 KT WITH 
MAXIMUM WIND 45 WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S AND 90 NM N SEMICIRCLES.  
FABIO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRI NIGHT 
AS IT TURN TO A MORE NW TRACK THROUGH SAT.  SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...DISCONTINUOUS 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N99W AND FROM 12N118W TO 
05N131W THEN ITCZ EXTENDS TO BEYOND 06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 90W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM S OF AXIS FROM 118W TO 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 31N123W HAS SHARP TROUGH EXTEND TO 
10N140W THEN TO SECOND CYCLONE AT 05N143W.  VERY DRU AIR MASS 
UNDER TROUGH AND UPSTREAM RIDGE.  DOWNSTREAM ANTICYCLONE 23N114W 
FEEDS FLOW OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO AREA WHERE FABIO IS 
DEVELOPING.  UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IMPROVES OVER FABIO NOW THAT 
EMILIA OUTFLOW HAS DIMINISHED.  

SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB N OF AREA AT 35N140W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO 20N120W.  TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND 
HURRICANE EMILIA FORCES SWATH OF FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 
FT N OF 25N W OF 135W.

WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
PULSE TO 20 KT WITH SEAS BARELY REACHING 7-8 FT THROUGH SUN. 

$$
WALLY BARNES