000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120930 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUL 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE EMILIA CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 120.2W OR ABOUT 855 MILES SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 12/0900 UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM IN THE E AND 150 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLES OF EMILIA. EMILIA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W OR W-NW OVER COOLER WATERS WITH WEAKENING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN USUAL OVER COOLER WATER DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM FRI AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SUN NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES 140W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 106.4W OR ABOUT 400 MILES S-SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 12/0900 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE S AND 240 NM IN THE SW QUADRANTS OF SIX-E. SIX-E WILL BE UNDER MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALLOWING FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT...WITH SIX-E FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO A HURRICANE SUN NIGHT AS IT MOVES ON MORE OF A N-NW TRACK. THEREAFTER SIX-E IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM MON NIGHT AND THEN BACK TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TUE NIGHT AS IT COUNTERS MUCH COOLER WATERS WELL W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 07N77W TO 09N86W TO 13N100W...THEN RESUMES FROM 10N124W TO 04N131W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N131W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W...FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 96W AND 99W...FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W...AND ALSO FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 119W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N137W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N130W WITH A SE TERMINUS NEAR 22N111W. THE RIDGE IS VERY BROAD E OF 128W AND WINDS THERE ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE...HOWEVER A TIGHTER GRADIENT IS DEVELOPING TO THE W OF 128W AS HURRICANE EMILIA PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE FROM THE SE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT FRESH N-NE WINDS HAVE COMMENCED OVER THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 128W AND 134W ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL. THESE FRESH WINDS WILL SPREAD SW COVERING THE NW CORNER W OF A LINE FROM 30N124W TO 20N140W BY 24 THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SW-W WITH EMILIA PUSHING W-NW. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE-E WINDS WAS MEASURED BY ASCAT FROM 15N TO 20N W OF 138W. SEAS TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL ACCOMPANY THESE FRESH WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE ON THE FAR OUTER CIRCULATION OF WHAT IS LEFT OF DANIEL WHICH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 12 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER AWAY FROM 140W. THE PAPAGAYO JET HAS RE-STRENGTHENED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH NE-E WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT IS OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING PEAK DRAINAGE. $$ LEWITSKY