000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120254
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE EMILIA CENTER AT 14.7N 117.8W AT 0300 UTC MOVE W AT 8 
KT WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 960 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 100 
WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER.  EMILIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL 
STORM FRI AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER 
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL CENTER AT 15.5N 143.0W AT 0300 UTC MOVE W 
AT 13 KT WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1007 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND 30 GUSTS 40 KT.  SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER TCMCP1/WTPA21 PHFO FOR MORE DETAILS.

SURFACE LOW PRES 1005 MB AT 13N104W EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH 
MOVES W-NW AT 8 KT WITH ASSOCIATED HEAVY CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM W SEMICIRCLE.  WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS SYSTEM 
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP 
AROUND CENTER.  UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT WITH AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...DISCONTINUOUS 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 11N100W...THEN RESUMES 
FROM 09N121W TO 05N130W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 08N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 122W TO 124W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N122W TO CYCLONE AT 
29N123W THEN SW TO SECOND CYCLONE AT 06N138W.  TROUGH AND 
UPSTREAM ANTICYCLONE BRING VERY DRY STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MOST 
OF BASIN N OF 10N W OF 122W.    

...E OF 120W...
COMPLEX ARRAY OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTERRUPTED BY OUTFLOWS FROM 
EMILIA AND LOW PRES CENTER AT 13N104W PRODUCE SMALL REGIONS OF 
DIVERGING AND CONVERGING WINDS ALOFT WHICH MAKES FORECAST 
ERRATIC AT BEST.  CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL MIXING WITH 
SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE EMILIA PRODUCING CONFUSED SEAS OVER 
LARGE PORTION OF REGION FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.
ADD PRODUCTION OF SWELLS COMING OUT OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRES  
CENTER AND SEAS ONLY BECOME HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.    

LOW PRES CENTER 1005 MB AT 13N104W REMAINS STUBBORNLY RESISTANT 
TO ADVERSE OUTFLOW FROM EMILIA AND COOLER SST THAN ITS 
FRONTRUNNER...BUT CONDITIONS TURN MORE FAVORABLE AS IT ENTERS 
AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT ENHANCING ITS CONVECTION.  SYSTEM  
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT DRIFT AND EMILIA WEAKENS.  
THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW PRES CENTER BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 48 HOURS.  MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE 
WITH DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK SCENARIO WITH MAIN DIFFERENCES IN ITS 
TIMING.

HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB AT 32N143W FORCES SWATH OF FRESH N-NE 
BREEZE N OF 27N FROM 126W TO 135W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY 
FRI.

$$
WALLY BARNES