000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE EMILIA CENTER AT 14.7N 117.8W AT 2100 UTC MOVE W AT 8 
KT WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 960 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 100 
WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER.  EMILIA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL 
STORM FRI AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER 
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL CENTER AT 15.4N 141.5W AT 2100 UTC MOVE W 
AT 14 KT WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1006 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND 30 GUSTS 40 KT.  SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER TCMCP1/WTPA21 PHFO FOR MORE DETAILS.

SURFACE LOW PRES 1006 MB AT 13N103W EMBEDDED IN MONSOON TROUGH 
MOVES W-NW AT 10 KT WITH ASSOCIATED HEAVY CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM W SEMICIRCLE.  WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS SYSTEM 
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP 
AROUND CENTER.  UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT WITH AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 09N90W TO 
11N100W...THEN RESUMES FROM 10N120W TO 05N130W THEN ITCZ TO 
BEYOND 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 
04N E OF 85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH FROM 119W TO 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N120W TO CYCLONE AT 
26N123W THEN SW TO SECOND CYCLONE AT 07N139W.  TROUGH AND 
UPSTREAM ANTICYCLONE BRING VERY DRY STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MOST 
OF BASIN N OF 10N W OF 120W.    

...E OF 120W...
COMPLEX ARRAY OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTERRUPTED BY OUTFLOWS FROM 
EMILIA AND LOW PRES CENTER AT 13N103W PRODUCE SMALL REGIONS OF 
DIVERGING AND CONVERGING WINDS ALOFT WHICH MAKES FORECAST 
ERRATIC AT BEST.  CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL MIXING WITH 
SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE EMILIA PRODUCING CONFUSED SEAS OVER 
LARGE PORTION OF REGION FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.
ADD PRODUCTION OF SWELLS COMING OUT OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRES  
CENTER AND SEAS ONLY BECOME HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.    

LOW PRES CENTER 1006 MB AT 13N103W REMAINS STUBBORNLY RESISTANT 
TO ADVERSE OUTFLOW FROM EMILIA AND COOLER SST THAN ITS 
FRONTRUNNER...BUT CONDITIONS TURN MORE FAVORABLE AS IT ENTERS 
AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT ENHANCING ITS CONVECTION.  SYSTEM  
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT DRIFT AND EMILIA WEAKENS.  
THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW PRES CENTER BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 48 HOURS.  MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE 
WITH DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK SCENARIO WITH MAIN DIFFERENCES IN ITS 
TIMING.

HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB AT 32N143W FORCES SWATH OF FRESH N-NE 
BREEZE N OF 27N FROM 126W TO 135W WITH SEAS REACHING 10 FT BY 
FRI.

$$
WALLY BARNES