000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111556 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUL 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE EMILIA CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 117.3W AT 1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WNW OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON FRI. TROPICAL STORM DANIEL CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 141.2W AT 1500 UTC MOVING W AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAS MOVED W OF THE AREA. SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER TCMCP1/WTPA21 PHFO FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. 1005 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12N103W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND T-STORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTIVE BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW HAS A HIGH...80 PERCENT...CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... DISCONTINUOUS MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 09N92W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N103W...THEN FROM 12N117W TO 07N125W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 04N E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 135 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW NEAR 12N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 128W. ...DISCUSSION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUING ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS. THE PRIMARY GENESIS REGION WITHIN THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE S OF MEXICO BETWEEN 98W AND 108W. DANIEL AND EMILIA FORMED IN THAT AREA...AND IT NOW APPEARS ANOTHER LOW IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF STRONG WINDS N OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL...AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OF HURRICANE EMILIA...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS LOCATED UP TO 450 NM S OF THE CENTER. WW3 WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES EMILIA HAS A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER...UP TO 600 NM FROM THE CENTER...WHICH IS A RESULT OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD EXPANDING EVEN AS THE CENTRAL CORE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IS MIXING WITH A BROAD MIX OF SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE EMILIA THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 12N103W IS FIGHTING AGAINST NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR FROM EMILIA...BUT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DESPITE SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...AS NEARLY ALL U.S. FCST MODELS INCLUDING GFS - NOGAPS - NAM AND ENSEMBLES FAVOR GROWTH. AN AREA OF FRESH N-NE WINDS IS EXPECTED N OF 27N BETWEEN 126W AND 135W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IN THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA GRADUALLY INCREASE AND SPREAD SW THROUGH FRI AS EMILIA MOVES S OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. $$ MUNDELL