000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110940 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUL 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE EMILIA CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 116.6W OR ABOUT ABOUT 720 MILES SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 11/0900 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE. EMILIA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND MEETS INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT WHILE CONTINUING ON A W-NW MOTION THROUGH THE WEEK. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM FRI NIGHT...AND THEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SUN NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM DANIEL CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 139.7W OR ABOUT ABOUT 1055 MILES E-SE OF HILO HAWAII AT 11/0900 UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF DANIEL IN THE SE QUADRANT. DANIEL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND DEALS WITH INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO A REMNANT LOW THU AFTERNOON. 1006 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12N103W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH MOVING W-NW AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150-180 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND IT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS AREA CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N85W TO 10N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N103W 1006 MB TO 14N107W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W. ...DISCUSSION... 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N135W WITH A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N130W...WITH A SE TERMINUS NEAR 23N113W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS UNDER THIS RIDGE ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND HURRICANE EMILIA TO THE SE WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF FRESH N-NE WINDS OVER THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 126W AND 135W ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN N-NE SWELL BY LATE WED NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD TO THE SW AS EMILIA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO IT WITH FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL BY LATE THU NIGHT ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...N OF 22N W OF 128W. THE PAPAGAYO JET HAS WEAKENED ALTHOUGH IT WILL RE-STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH NE-E WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT FORECAST FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BY LATE WED NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IS MIXING WITH A BROAD MIX OF SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE EMILIA WITH AN AREA OF 8-11 FT CONFUSED SEAS SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 24N BETWEEN 109W AND 125W. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXIST S OF 23N W OF 133W AROUND TROPICAL STORM DANIEL. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF DANIEL BY LATE WED NIGHT AS IT MOVES WELL W OF 140W. MEANWHILE THE AREA OF BROAD SWELL/CONFUSED SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH EMILIA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W-NW THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...COINCIDENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. $$ LEWITSKY