000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110258
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE EMILIA CENTERED AT 14.4N115.6W MOVING W-NW AT 11 KT. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 967 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 95 GUSTS TO 
115 KT.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF 
CENTER.  WEAKENING EXPECTED THROUGH FRI BECOMING TROPICAL STORM 
FRI NIGHT.  CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AGREE ON TRACK AND INTENSITY WITH 
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL AT 15.4N 138.3W MOVING W AT 15 KT.  
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1003 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35 GUSTS 
TO 45 KT.  NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER. 
DANIEL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES W OVER COOLER 
WATERS AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON THU AFTER IT 
MOVES W OF 140W.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES AT 11N102W EMBEDDED WITHIN MONSOON TROUGH 
DRIFTING W PRESENTLY APPEARS HIGHLY DISORGANIZED...BUT REMAINS 
UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN 
OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE 
BEEN LOWERED BY EMILIA'S PATH...THEY STILL REMAIN ABOVE 29 
CELSIUS AND FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS 60 PERCENT 
CHANCE THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER NEXT 48 
HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 10N96W TO LOW PRES AT 11N102W AND 
CONTINUES FROM 09N118W TO 06N125W TO 07N130W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 96W TO 98W.

...DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR MASS N OF 10N W OF 119W HAS DONE GOOD WORK ERODING 
MOISTURE OUT OF DANIEL AND WITH COOLER SST THE SYSTEM HAS 
WEAKENED TO TROPICAL STORM THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION EARLY WED...AND REMNANT LOW PRES BY EARLY THU.  AS 
DANIEL MOVES W...HEALTHY HIGH PRES CENTER N OF AREA IS ABLE TO 
EXPAND FURTHER S THU INCREASING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND 
TROUGH ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA PRODUCING FRESH N WINDS AND 10 FT W 
OF BAJA COAST.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL COMBINE WITH THOSE GENERATED BY 
DANIEL AND EMILIA RESULTING IN SEAS TO 10 FT S OF 25N W OF 125W. 
S SWELL COMPONENT SUBSIDE SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH DANIEL W MOVE WITH 
SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD...UNTIL EMILIA ARRIVES.

STRONG E WIND OVER SW CARIBBEAN SEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN NICARAGUA 
INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  MODEL GUIDANCE POINT TO MODERATE TO 
FRESH E BREEZE WITH SEAS BARELY TO 8 FT STARTING EARLY THU 
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
WALLY BARNES