000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE EMILIA CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 113.7W MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 115 KT...GUSTS TO 140 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
CENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH EMILIA 
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM AROUND FRI NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
MOTION IS EXPECTED. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUED WNW 
TRACK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN FORWARD 
SPEED.

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 135.1W MOVING W AT 14 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT...GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE CENTER. DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT 
MOVES WESTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS...AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL 
REMNANT LOW AROUND THU AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 11N100W IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW AND 
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL 
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER HURRICANE EMILIA IS 
MORE THAN 600 NM AWAY FROM THE LOW. THERE IS A MEDIUM 40 PERCENT 
CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N100W 
TO 13N110W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N119W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...
1027 MB HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE 
TO NEAR 22N117W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS
W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL AS WELL AS NE SWELL GENERATED 
BY DANIEL AND EMILIA HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF ELEVATED SEAS OF 
7-8 FT ROUGHLY S OF 10N W OF 110W. THE S SWELL COMPONENT WILL 
STEADILY SUBSIDE...WHILE LONG PERIOD SWELL GENERATED BY THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT ACROSS 
THE EQUATORIAL REGION AT 6-7 FT THROUGH THU.

FRESH E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH SOUTHERN NICARAGUA 
INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LATEST SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOW 15-20 
KT ENE WINDS W OF PAPAGAYO. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS COMBINED 
LESS THAN 8 FT...EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT THROUGH THU AS 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL DIMINISHES.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AS THE 
HURRICANE MOVES S OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...INCREASING N-NE WINDS
TO NEAR 20 KT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT N OF 27N 
BETWEEN 125W AND 133W BY WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL