000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100944 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUL 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM DANIEL CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 133.7W OR ABOUT ABOUT 1440 MILES E OF HILO HAWAII AT 10/0900 UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM IN THE E AND 45 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLES OF DANIEL. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS... WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WED NIGHT AS IT MOVES W OF 140W...AND BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY THU NIGHT... THEN FINALLY DISSIPATING FRI NIGHT. HURRICANE EMILIA CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 113.0W OR ABOUT ABOUT 680 MILES S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 10/0900 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N110W TO 09N107W. EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH EMILIA WEAKENING BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WED NIGHT...THEN CONTINUALLY WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM BY FRI NIGHT. EMILIA WILL MAINTAIN A W-NW MOVEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10.5N99.5W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS LOW IS THE RESULT OF A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE...WHICH HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...AND RESULTANT GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE LOW WILL BE OF INTEREST TO WATCH AS IT CONTINUES ON A W-NW TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N84W TO 09N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10.5N99.5W 1007 MB. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N136W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 05N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W. ...DISCUSSION... 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N134W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N127W...WITH A SE TERMINUS NEAR 21N113W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER NW OLD MEXICO IS PRODUCING FRESH NW-N WINDS N OF 28N E OF 120W TO THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS MEASURED BY RECENT ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL COMBINED WITH NE SWELL GENERATED BY DANIEL AND EMILIA IS RESULTING IN 8 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 06N W OF 110W. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVENTUALLY SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY WED NIGHT. THE PAPAGAYO JET CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AND IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS OVER THE AREA FROM 10.5N TO 12N E OF 89W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN IN THE N CENTRAL WATERS WED NIGHT AS EMILIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF HIGH PRES DISCUSSED ABOVE. AS A RESULT...FRESH N-NE WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE FORECAST OVER THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 126W AND 132W BY 48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY