000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE DANIEL IS NEAR 15.4N 130.7W MOVING W OT 275 DEGREES AT 
14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. DANIEL 
IS NOW A MINIMAL HURRICANE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE 
MAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS DANIEL 
WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT...AND TO A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES 140W INTO THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC.

HURRICANE EMILIA IS NEAR 13.1N 111.1W MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEGREES 
AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 95 KT GUSTS TO 115 KT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. EMILIA IS JUST 
SHY OF A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH 
MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS TONIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS EMILIA 
CONTINUING ON A WNW TRACK AS A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS BEFORE STARTING A WEAKENING TREND. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W HAS HELPED PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED MORE 
BELOW. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N83W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 10N98W TO 10N103W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N133W TO 
06N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED N 
OF 04N E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 102W.

...DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N98W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE RESULT OF A COMPLEX INTERACTION 
BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE AND RESULTANT GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL BE OF 
INTEREST TO WATCH AS IT CONTINUES ON A W-NW TRACK OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE 1027 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N135W 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N116W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND WINDS HAVE 
DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT. THE PREVIOUS AREA OF TRADEWINDS HAS NOW 
SHIFTED W OF THE AREA AS DANIEL CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TRACK. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 8 
FT ARE FOUND S OF 07N W OF 105W. THE SWELL WILL MIX WITH 
SLIGHTLY SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL GENERATED FROM BOTH DANIEL AND 
EMILIA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL 
SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE 
BELOW 8 FT THU AFTERNOON. 

THE PAPAGAYO JET CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AND IS PRODUCING FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W... 
INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY TUE EVENING AS THE JET WEAKENS.

$$
AL