000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091645
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 9 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE DANIEL IS NEAR 15.3N 129.1W MOVING W AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KT GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE CENTER. DANIEL WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND WEAKEN 
THROUGH THU. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR WEAK 
TROPICAL STORM WITH A LARGE AREA OF 8 FT OR GREATER SEAS AS IT 
CROSSES 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.

HURRICANE EMILIA IS NEAR 12.6N 109.9W MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 KT GUSTS TO 105 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. EMILIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST- 
NORTHWEST THROUGH THU...AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER 
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY TUE NIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO 14N NEAR THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NORTHWARD INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...AND IS 
MOVING W AT 10 KT. A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 10N97W IS 
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER A 
BROAD AREA FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W. THE WAVE IS 
FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATE OVER MEXICO TUE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO 07N82W TO 10N92W. THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N131W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LINE OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS 
ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC...ANCHORED BY THE HURRICANES DANIEL AND 
EMILIA...WHILE A NEW CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS TRYING TO BECOME 
BETTER ORGANIZED S OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W NEAR 10N97W. THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE STORM TRACK... 
INTENSIFYING BETWEEN 100W AND 120W...THEN WEAKENING AS THEY 
ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS W OF 120W.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N138W HAS A 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N117W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONES IS ALLOWING THE AREA OF HIGH 
WINDS AND SEAS TO EXPAND FARTHER NORTH OF THE HURRICANES WHILE 
REMAINING RELATIVELY SMALL TO THE SOUTH.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS TO 
8 FT S OF 07N W OF 105W. THIS AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD 
THROUGH WED AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH...AND MIX WITH SHORT PERIOD 
SWELL GENERATED BY DANIEL AND EMILIA.

ENHANCED E-NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY TUE 
EVENING AS THE FORCING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN WEAKENS.

$$
MUNDELL