000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090935 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUL 09 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DANIEL CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 127.7W OR ABOUT 1270 MILES W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 09/0900 UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE N AND 75 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLES OF DANIEL. DANIEL IS OVER COOLER WATERS AND IS WEAKENING. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...AND TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WED NIGHT AS IT MOVES W OF 140W. RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE EMILIA NEAR 11.9N 109.3W OR ABOUT 760 MILES S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 09/0900 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE W AND 60-75 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLES OF EMILIA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN A BAND BETWEEN 120 AND 210 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE OF EMILIA. EMILIA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A MAJOR HURRICANE TUE AFTERNOON WHILE CONTINUING ON A W-NW TRACK THROUGH THE WEEK. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 14N ALONG 94W IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REACHING NORTHWARD INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...AND MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS N OF 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W AND ALSO N OF 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE AND WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TUE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N80W TO 09N90W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N129W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ ALTHOUGH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...DISCUSSION... 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N138W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N132W...WITH A TERMINUS NEAR 20N114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ...ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE DANIEL IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES FROM 07N TO 15N W OF 136W. THESE TRADES WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS COINCIDENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF DANIEL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE...AND TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO AND THE SW UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS N OF 27N E OF 121W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS MEASURED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT ARE FOUND S OF 09N BETWEEN 97W AND 130W...AND S OF 07N W OF 130W. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS EVENTUALLY COVERING THE AREA S OF 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W...AND S OF 10N W OF 130W BY TUE NIGHT. THE SWELL WILL MIX WITH SLIGHTLY SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL GENERATED FROM BOTH DANIEL AND EMILIA BY 24 THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE HAS ALSO BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATEST GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N97W... INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE WEAKENS. THE INTERACTION OF THIS GAP WIND EVENT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09.5N95.5W AS SUGGESTED BY AN EARLIER WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND ALSO BY INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS LOW WILL BE OF INTEREST TO WATCH THROUGH THE WEEK AS IT CONTINUES ON A W-NW MOTION TO NEAR 12N101W BY 48 HOURS. THE PAPAGAYO JET CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AND IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA FROM 10.5N TO 12N E OF 90W... INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY TUE EVENING AS THE JET WEAKENS. $$ LEWITSKY