000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090247 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JUL 09 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DANIEL CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 126.3W AT 09/0300 UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER. DANIEL IS OVER COOLER WATERS AND HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS DANIEL CONTINUING ITS WESTWARD TRACK WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING...TO A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY TUE...AND TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THU NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM EMILIA NEAR 11.6N 108.4W AT 09/0300 UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER. EMILIA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THE WNW TRACK AND INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO LOW PRES 1007 MB 10N95W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. ...DISCUSSION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATEST GAP WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE INTERACTION OF THIS GAP WIND EVENT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AS WELL AS THE RECENT ASCAT PASS...AND HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 00 UTC MAP. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE ONE OF INTEREST TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N138W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N118W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ...ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF DANIEL IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 135W. THE FRESH TRADES WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS COINCIDENT WITH THE GENERAL MOVEMENT OF DANIEL. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS N OF 27N E OF 120W TO COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY MON EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT ARE CURRENTLY FOUND S OF 10N W OF 100W. THIS AREA OF 8 FT SEAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO COVER THE AREA S OF 10N W OF 108W TUE EVENING. THE SWELLS WILL ALSO MIX WITH SWELLS GENERATED FROM DANIEL AND EMILIA. THE PAPAGAYO JET CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AND IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT TUE NIGHT. $$ AL