000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

HURRICANE DANIEL CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 125.0W AT 08/2100 UTC 
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
110 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. ELSEWHERE 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM OF CENTER. DANIEL IS FORECAST CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TRACK 
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY MON...AND 
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THU.

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA NEAR 11.4N 107.5W AT 08/2100 UTC MOVING 
WNW OR 285 DEG AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
ON THE WNW TRACK AND INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE TONIGHT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 10N95W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 08N127W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM OF 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. 

...DISCUSSION...

ENHANCED CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH 
AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 95W ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION OF A 
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FURTHER ENHANCING THIS AREA...AND LATEST 
VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION HAS 
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE 
00 UTC MAP. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE ONE OF INTEREST TO 
WATCH OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 
35N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N112W.THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE ITCZ...ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE DANIEL IS 
MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 132W AS 
WAS OBSERVED BY THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE FRESH TRADES 
WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS COINCIDENT 
WITH THE GENERAL MOVEMENT OF DANIEL. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH NW TO N WINDS N OF 27N E OF 119W TO COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT MON EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS OF 8 
FT ARE CURRENTLY FOUND S OF 07N. SEAS OF 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS SWELL WILL SHIFT N DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO COVER THE 
AREA S OF 10N 107W...AND MIX WITH SWELLS GENERATED BY DANIEL AND 
EMILIA. 

THE PAPAGAYO JET CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AND IS PRODUCING FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W INCLUDING 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
AL