000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUL 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DANIEL CENTERED NEAR 15.1N 123.7W OR ABOUT 1050 MILES W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 08/1500 UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 900 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AFTER STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR HURRICANE LAST NIGHT...DANIEL IS NOW UNDERGOING A WEAKENING TREND AS EVIDENT IN LESS DISTINCT EYE FEATURE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING. AS A RESULT...THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION EARLIER NOTED AROUND THE CENTER IS FRACTURING. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN A BAND IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT AND 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT WITHIN 30 NM OF A BAND FROM 14N123W TO 15N123W. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY MON EVENING WHILE MAINTAINING ITS WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. TROPICAL STORM EMILIA NEAR 11.2N 105.9W OR ABOUT 550 MILES S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 08/1500 UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT EMILIA IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS NOTED BY THE BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING INTO ITS CENTER WITH BURSTS OF CONVECTION WITHIN IT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED NUMEROUS CELLS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 10N103W TO 12N105.5W TO 14N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 16N105W TO 14N107W TO 11N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. THE 15 UTC NHC ADVISORY HAS EMILIA FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A MINIMAL HURRICANE BY MON MORNING...AS IT MAINTAINS A WNW MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AND WHILE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N91W TO 09N99W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N123W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 90W-95W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 99W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT... ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR WITH STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IS OVER MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE NW OF HURRICANE DANIEL AND TROPICAL STORM EMILIA. SURFACE... A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N140W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N129W AND TO NEAR 26N116W.THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ...ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE DANIEL IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES FROM 08N TO 18N W OF 132W AS WAS OBSERVED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THE FRESH TRADES WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS COINCIDENT WITH THE GENERAL MOVEMENT OF DANIEL...TO W OF 140W BY MON EVENING. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS ALSO PRESENT N OF 26N AND E OF 119W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE NW-N 20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE LOCATED. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT MON AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SLACKENS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 FT WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 14-15 SECONDS ARE CONFINED TO S OF 03N BETWEEN 83W AND 89W. SIMILAR SWELLS WITH LOWER PERIODS ARE S OF 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W...AND ELSEWHERE W OF 110W S OF A LINE FROM 07N110W TO 00N140W. THE AREA OF SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SHIFT WNW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO BE OVER THE AREA S OF 10N W OF 107W BY 48 HOURS WHILE MIXING WITH SEAS GENERATED BY DANIEL AND EMILIA. GAP WINDS... FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL MAX OUT TO NEAR 25 KT DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS ALSO BUILDING TO 9 FT. THE N-N WINDS OF 25-30 KT NOTED THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LAST NIGHT ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING...AND AROUND THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY EARLY MON MORNING...AND TO LESS THAN 20 KT MON NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE SRN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVES FROM GUATEMALA TO SE MEXICO. $$ AGUIRRE