000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080931 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUL 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DANIEL CENTERED NEAR 15.1N 122.4W OR ABOUT 980 MILES W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 08/0900 UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL HAS STRENGTHENED TO A MAJOR HURRICANE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OF DANIEL. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY MON NIGHT WHILE CONTINUING ON A WESTWARD TRACK. DANIEL WILL THEN FURTHER WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY WED NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM EMILIA NEAR 10.7N 104.6W OR ABOUT 575 MILES S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 08/0900 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER OF EMILIA. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A W-NW MOTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE MON AFTERNOON. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 07N78W TO 10N94W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N129W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF 11.5N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W AND ALSO FROM 06.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 102W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W. ...DISCUSSION... 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 33N156W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N140W WITH A TERMINUS NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ...ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE DANIEL IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES FROM 08N TO 18N W OF 132W AS MEASURED BY RECENT ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE FRESH TRADES WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS COINCIDENT WITH THE GENERAL MOVEMENT OF DANIEL...MOVING WEST OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO PRESENT W OF THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH NW-N WINDS N OF 26N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE PENINSULA VERIFYING THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THAT AREA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY MON MORNING AS THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SLACKENS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL TO 9 FT WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 83W AND 89W...S OF 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W...AND ELSEWHERE W OF 110W S OF A LINE FROM 07N110W TO 00N140W. THE AREA OF SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SHIFT W-NW DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS COVERING THE AREA S OF 09N W OF 110W BY 48 HOURS WHILE MIXING WITH SEAS GENERATED BY DANIEL AND EMILIA. GAP WINDS... FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL MAX OUT TO NEAR 25 KT DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS ALSO BUILDING TO 9-10 FT DURING THAT TIME. AN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED N-NE WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING TO ACROSS WESTERN GUATEMALA. THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TONIGHT...AND THEN TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY MON MORNING AS THE WAVE DISSIPATES OVER MEXICO. $$ LEWITSKY