000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080246
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

HURRICANE DANIEL CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 121.2W AT 08/0300 UTC 
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
110 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE IN A BAND S AND E OF THE 
CENTER OF DANIEL ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W. 
DANIEL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY W AS A HURRICANE 
THROUGH SUN...WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM MON...AND EVENTUALLY 
WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THURSDAY. 

RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS CENTERED NEAR 10.7N 
103.2W AT 08/0300 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS NOTED FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 
98W AND 108W. EMILIA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TRACK WEST 
NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE MONDAY.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N85W TO 10N95W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 09N129W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W 
TO 95W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
33N154W HAS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N110W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ...ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE 
DANIEL IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH 20 KT TRADEWINDS FROM 10N 
TO 20N W OF 135W. THE FRESH 20 KT TRADES WILL SHIFT WESTWARD 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS COINCIDENT WITH THE GENERAL MOVEMENT OF 
DANIEL...AND WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY MON EVENING.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT S OF 
04N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W...S OF 06N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W AND S OF 
04N W OF 110W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND WILL MIX WITH SEAS GENERATED BY DANIEL AND 
TD FIVE-E...COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA S OF 10N W OF 110W.

$$
AL