000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071532 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUL 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DANIEL CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 119.2W OR 720 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 07/1500 UTC MOVING W AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE IN A BAND FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 119W. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH DANIEL SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL LATER TODAY AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD SOON ENCOUNTER A DRIER AIR MASS. IT LOOKS LIKE THAT THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED...OR IS VERY NEAR...ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. DANIEL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK MAINLY W AS A HURRICANE THROUGH SUN MORNING...WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM SUN NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY WEDNESDAY. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR 09N99.5W OR ABOUT 470 NM S-SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS TO THE N OF THE CENTER...COVERING THE AREA FROM 09N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 98W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20-25 KT WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOW A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10-15 KT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 07N78W TO 11N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N99.5W 1006 MB THEN RESUMES W OF HURRICANE DANIEL FROM 12N120W TO 08N129W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N129W TO BEYOND 07N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 79W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N153W HAS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ...ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF HURRICANE DANIEL IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 10N TO 16N W OF 125W. THESE WINDS WERE SAMPLED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS COINCIDENT WITH THE GENERAL MOVEMENT OF DANIEL...WITH A SMALL AREA OF TRADES...MAINLY FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 135W BY 48 HOURS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT ARE S OF 04N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W...S OF 06N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W AND S OF 04N W OF 110W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND WILL MIX WITH SEAS GENERATED BY DANIEL AND THE LOW PRES NOW NEAR 09N99.5W...COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA S OF 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 135W. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH ARE CURRENTLY BEING ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SHIP CALLSIGN A8ER9 MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION REPORTED 25 KT SUSTAINED WIND AND SEAS TO 9 FT THIS MORNING. FRESH N-NE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY MON MORNING. $$ GR