000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070240
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 117.1W 
AT 07/0300 UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 
65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 
CENTER. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED AROUND 
THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF DANIEL. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT VORTICITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT 
HAS BROKEN DOWN. DANIEL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS A 
HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND...THEN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A 
TROPICAL STORM SUN NIGHT. 

LOW PRESSURE 1006 MB NEAR 10N97W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. THUS FAR...THIS HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT EXAMPLE OF THE 
COMPLEX INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TOWARD A POTENTIAL 
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS EVENT IN THE EPAC. AS MENTIONED 
ABOVE...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. AN ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION TO CYCLOGENESIS IN 
THIS CASE WOULD BE THE BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO ENABLE 
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO FURTHER DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE. THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE 
FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE LATEST FORECAST FROM 
NHC GIVES THE SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N97W 
TO 10N105W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N129W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1029 MB LOCATED NW OF AREA NEAR 35N153W HAS RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ ALONG WITH 
THE PROXIMITY OF T.S. DANIEL IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH 
TRADEWINDS FROM 10N TO 16N W OF 125W. 

SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT IS 
CURRENTLY FOUND SOUTH OF 04N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W AND S OF 04N 
BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE 
SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...COVERING MUCH OF 
THE AREA SOUTH OF 05N BY SUN AFTERNOON.  

WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
WATERS...FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THIS WILL BE YET ANOTHER INTERACTION TO WATCH WITH 
INTEREST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
AL