000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062137
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 116.0W AT 06/2100 
UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRES IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT GUSTS 75 
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. A BAND OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED AROUND 
THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF DANIEL. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT VORTICITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT 
HAS BROKEN DOWN. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR DANIEL TO 
INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS 
WESTWARD TRACK.

LOW PRESSURE 1006 MB NEAR 09N95W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. THUS FAR...THIS HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT EXAMPLE OF THE 
COMPLEX INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TOWARD A POTENTIAL 
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS EVENT IN THE EPAC. AS MENTIONED 
ABOVE...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. AN ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION TO CYCLOGENESIS IN 
THIS CASE WOULD BE THE BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO ENABLE 
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO FURTHER DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE. THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE 
FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE LATEST FORECAST FROM 
NHC GIVES THE SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N95W 
TO 10N102W. ITCZ FROM 10N126W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W 
AND 90W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED N OF 
09N BETWEEN 94W AND 99W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1031 MB LOCATED NW OF AREA NEAR 35N153W HAS RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ ALONG WITH 
THE PROXIMITY OF T.S. DANIEL IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH 
TRADEWINDS FROM 10N TO 16N W OF 120W. LATEST ASCAT PASS 
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. THIS AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAINTAINING 
THIS SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES. 

SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT IS 
CURRENTLY FOUND SOUTH OF 03N BETWEEN 93W AND 113W AND S OF 02N 
BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL CONTINUE 
SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...COVERING MUCH OF 
THE AREA SOUTH OF 05N BY SUN AFTERNOON.  

WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
WATERS...FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THIS WILL BE YET ANOTHER INTERACTION TO WATCH WITH 
INTEREST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
AL