000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061001
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 6 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 114.2W AT 06/0900 
UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRES IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY: AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/ 
WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO 
INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND MOVE WESTWARD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS SPLIT AS A RESULT OF TROPICAL STORM 
DANIEL. ONE PART EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO 11N92W TO 07N95W TO 
12N107W. THE SECOND PART EXTENDS FROM 12N116W TO 08N125W THEN 
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 
99W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 110W AND 124W. 

...DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W 
AND 100W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITHIN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ROUGHLY 400 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. IT APPEARS THAT THIS CIRCULATION IS IN A REGION 
OF ENHANCED VORTICITY THAT RESULTED FROM THE INTERACTION OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WITH GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS CIRCULATION IS STILL BROAD 
ENOUGH WHERE A DEFINED LOW CENTER HAS DEVELOPED...BUT WITH THE 
ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FROM GAP WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY...IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS CIRCULATION WILL 
BECOME MORE DISTINCT WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO CONTINUE WATCHING THIS AREA 
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE 
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE 1029 MB LOCATED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
35N152W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 22N118W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES FROM 10N 
N OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE 
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND WILL
PROPAGATE NORTHWARD TO COVER THE AREA SOUTH OF 07N BETWEEN 85W 
AND 125W BY SAT NIGHT.  

$$
MUNDELL